The latest findings of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC) - March 2025

In Limbo: Neither Recession nor Recovery

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee convened on March 10, 2025, to assess the current state of economic activity in the euro area, using data through the fourth quarter of 2024. Year-on-year real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2024 remained tepid. Employment continued to expand, particularly within the service and public sectors. The euro area’s unemployment rate reached a new low of 6.2%.
When examining business cycle trends across European countries, Germany, the region's largest economy, continues to underperform, while Spain stands out as the main driver of steady growth within the euro area.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards. 

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.